Win the Numbers
Dynasty player values, a trade calculator, and trade ideas tuned to your team's direction. Import your Sleeper league and make every move by the numbers.
Everything a dynasty manager needs, in one place.
Dynasty values
Every player and pick valued from historical production, projections, advanced stats, age, draft capital, and your league's roster and scoring settings.
Trade calculator
Pick any team, drop in players and picks on both sides, and see how the values stack up instantly.
Trade suggestions
Ideas tailored to your team's direction — contenders get win-now moves, rebuilders get deals that pay off later.
Team analysis
See your roster's needs, surplus, overall rating, and injury status at a glance.
Player research
A fast, filterable, sortable list of every player, plus deep player detail pages: value, bio, historical and advanced stats, and projections.
Scouting
College prospects with draft-eligible year, school, status, stats, and value, all filterable and sortable.
Start/sit optimizer
Your matchup simulated 20,000 times. See your win probability, the lineup that maximizes it, and which bench swap moves the number most.
Waiver wire
Every available free agent ranked against your actual roster holes — who to add, who to drop, and whether it's a value pickup or a points upgrade.
Not a gut-feel ranking. A formula you can inspect.
Every value is computed from the same set of inputs, weighted by position.
- Recency-weighted history
- Up to three seasons of production, weighted 5/4/3 toward the most recent, with a minimum games-played bar before a season counts.
- Position-specific age curves
- Running backs, receivers, quarterbacks, and tight ends age differently — each position gets its own prime window and decay rate, not one curve applied to everyone.
- Draft capital
- For players early in their career, where the NFL actually drafted them still carries signal — folded in alongside production, not instead of it.
- Advanced stats
- Per-play efficiency — EPA, target share, air yards, yards after catch — composited by position, not just counting stats.
- Your league's settings
- Positional scarcity and value over replacement are computed from your league's actual roster requirements and scoring, not a generic default.
- Simulated matchups
- Start/sit win probability comes from 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations per matchup, not a single point estimate — so the lineup recommendation reflects a full range of outcomes, not just the median one.
What we've measured — and the honest caveats that come with it.
College prospect grades
We are rebuilding this audit so our pre-draft grade, public consensus, college-only grade, and eventual NFL draft slot are evaluated on the same covered players. The previous table mixed a settled/post-draft grade with a smaller consensus-covered cohort, so it is withdrawn rather than presented as evidence that our pre-draft model wins.
A corrected, coverage-matched table will be published after the archive-backed report is regenerated.
The settled/post-draft grade remains useful for diagnostics, but it is not proof of pre-draft performance because realized draft capital was unavailable on the day a prospect board mattered. We will make no performance claim until the coverage-matched pre-draft audit has been rerun.
Source methodology: docs/backend/prospect-grading-backtest.md, algorithm version p20.
The scoring formula is unchanged; only the evaluation contract has been corrected.
Historical dynasty audit — withdrawn (v14)
This withdrawn historical table scored the projection-ablated v14 composite against real forward NFL production: best-2-of-3 seasons of PPR points per game following the 2020–2022 seasons (n=1,375), against FantasyPros' public expert-consensus dynasty rankings. It is retained only as an audit record, not as current model-performance evidence.
| Position | n | Our value | FantasyPros consensus | Last 3 seasons' production |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 164 | 0.413 | 0.751 | 0.618 |
| RB | 430 | 0.603 | 0.716 | 0.389 |
| WR | 548 | 0.618 | 0.747 | 0.488 |
| TE | 233 | 0.595 | 0.701 | 0.526 |
| All positions | 1,375 | 0.589 | 0.704 | 0.493 |
Spearman rank correlation to actual forward NFL production; higher is better.
These historical v14 figures are withdrawn and do not evaluate the current v15 QB continuity model. They were measured on a projection-ablated variant of the former formula — Sleeper publishes no historical projection archive, so a replay of a past season could only use projections it couldn't have had at the time. Read that honestly: public consensus beats this ablated value, most likely because the removed projection component is specifically the forward-looking signal a genuinely predictive baseline needs. The historical value beat just looking at trailing production, but that result is not evidence for the current dynasty model. See the source doc for the leak-size measurement.
Withdrawn historical source: docs/backend/player-value-backtest.md, algorithm
version v14 (projection-ablated). It predates and does not validate the current
v15 dynasty QB continuity model.
Redraft player values
We withdrew the previous redraft table after finding that its outcome data combined regular-season and postseason production. The corrected evaluation contract uses regular-season outcomes only, so those figures are not comparable and are not evidence of model performance.
A replacement table will be published only after the regular-season-only, archive-backed report is regenerated and passes its preregistered gates.
The replacement must also disclose that an archive replay without contemporaneous projections is
projection-ablated, not the exact formula users receive. The withdrawn v14 offensive
formula assigned projection 50% of its composite; v15 instead values offensive players by
projected points above league-specific replacement. Neither formula can be validated by an ablated
result, so none will be presented as proof of the shipped model's performance.
Withdrawal record: docs/backend/player-value-backtest-redraft.md, algorithm version
v14. The legacy figures remain quarantined there as an audit artifact.
What we don't publish a number for.
- Start/sit win probability — the model is documented in full, but no calibration figure exists yet; nothing checks that a stated 65% wins ~65% of the time.
- Waiver suggestions — every threshold is hand-picked and uncalibrated.
- Trade fairness and trade suggestions — no outcome label exists for "was that trade fair."
- Team analysis and overall rating — same.
- IDP values — FantasyPros' consensus (both formats) is offense-only, so the IDP half of the value engine has no consensus baseline above.
- The projection input — ablated out of the dynasty table above and the quarantined redraft audit, so neither is evidence for the exact dynasty formula or redraft projection-VOR model the app runs.
No purchase required.
A few advanced features are unlocked by watching an optional rewarded video — no purchase required, and rewards never depend on sharing tracking data. Sign in to sync your watchlist, settings, and leagues across devices, or continue as a guest.
- NFL statistics provided by the nflverse project (CC-BY 4.0).
- College football data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.
- League and roster data accessed via the Sleeper API.
Not affiliated with or endorsed by Sleeper, the NFL, or any college or professional league. For informational and entertainment purposes only.